Friday, September 29, 2006

Race Dead Even: Weldon's Phony Poll... Dead in Water

Today's Daily News, Poll: Tight Race in 7th District, has the results of the Keystone Poll from Franklin and Marshall.
Democratic upstart Sestak was leading Weldon by a single point, 45 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters, and 44 percent to 43 percent among all registered voters, the survey found.
The difference between the candidates was well within the survey's four-point margin of error, meaning that the results could easily flip if a different group of voters were surveyed.

Why this is more reliable than the phony 19-poll result touted by Weldon:
  1. Poll was conducted more recently (this past weekend, so about two weeks "fresher" than Weldon poll)
  2. Public has more information about the Iraq War and the further debunking of Able Danger by the Pentagon upon which to base a decision.
  3. Poll NOT was conducted or paid for by either campaign.

This poses quite dilemma for the Weldon campaign's next move:
A) If they stand by the 19-point poll, they have to explain a 20-point turn around.
B) If they release the REAL polling results they got two weeks (which would show the race within margin of error or the poll to be push poll), they've got to explain why they pretended it was 19-points.

Correct Answer: (C) Deny, spin and lie.

  1. They will denounce the poll.
  2. They'll claim that Franklin & Marshall is a liberal bastion and/or conducted a flawed poll.
  3. They'll claim to have superior (and of course, secret) internal polling data that contradicts the poll.
  4. They'll claim that Curt is running hard and their GOTV operation will make the poll irrelevant.
  5. They'll claim to have some info (i.e. dirt) on Sestak, that when revealed, will change voters minds.
  6. They'll claim is it still a long way to Nov 7th, and a lot can happen.
  7. Finally, they will claim that "The voters of the 7th know Curt and his record of independently fighting for them. Blah. Blah. Blah."


For the "Anonymous" Weldon campaign staffers that post here, save yourselves some typing and just respond with either: Answer C or (if you want to be specific) C.1, C.2, ... C.6

Thanks for playing.

14 Comments:

Anonymous Charlie said...

Hrm...the pro-Weldon trolls seem awfully quiet today.

Terminating Crazy Curt in a few weeks is going to be sweet...

2:51 PM  
Blogger Seventh Watch said...

Unless you had already read Bender's
DelcoTimes 9/29/2006, as Weldon's campaign manager Michael Puppio commented:

Weldon spokesman Michael Puppio said he was skeptical of the results, with a recent Republican poll showing the congressman leading Sestak 52-33. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on Sept. 12-13.

"That doesn’t jibe with our numbers," Puppio said of the latest poll. "Our numbers have us ahead with a comfortable lead."

He said the Keystone Poll is likely the result of anti-Weldon mailings and robo-calls and a report by the left-leaning Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington that labeled Weldon as one of the "most corrupt" members of Congress.


I guess they were all pretty well shocked and awed by Sestak!

8:19 PM  
Blogger quadmom7 said...

Go Joe!!
The voters of the 7th are ready for a new direction.
Let's remember to do what we can before the Sep 30 deadline.
http://sestakforcongress.com/take-action/contribute/

10:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the poll is great--it is a validation for all the hard work, time and money people have put into this race. Let's not lose sight that this is far from over, and htere is much work to do for everyone. The boys nosesare bloodied, so be sure they will come out wiht a vengeance and election day will be a ground war that we must work hard to win. They will outnumber us, but we can't let them outwork us. I would hat to see us make the mistake of Bush and think "Mission accomplished." Osama Bin Weldon's Taliban are still out there. Always remember and never forget--Let's go Joe, its time for Curt to go!!!!!!!

10:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And you know what comes next?

Sleaze, slime and gutter politics...because that's all they have left.

The first wave hit our house today: a four-color, four-page flyer that doesn't mention Curt Weldon at all. Instead, it attacks Joe Sestak with false, malicious nonsense about his military service.

It takes the George Bush/Donald Rumsfeld/Mike Mullin "poor command climate" statement and tries to turn it into some sort of reflection on Joe's competence and his military career.

It is shameless. It is disgusting. And it is paid for by the National Republican Congressional Committee.

They have nothing left but fear and smear.

10:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dems are worried about sleaze,slime,and gutter politics.I hope Charlie doesn't speak for most Sestak supporters with his "pro-Weldon trolls" quip.

12:40 AM  
Blogger whynotus said...

Reading the Inky today, sounds like the weldonians are spinning out of control. The early word this weeks was 60%, all is well, demoralize all Dems. Now, after this poll, they have adopted the complete opposition--energize the base, curt's in trouble, toughest fight, come out fighting, etc. it is amusing to watch the spinners--are they dizzy?

11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a Delco native and have two siblings who live in PA-07. Admiral Sestak's okay in my book even if he is an O'Hara grad. (I'm a Bonner boy :-))

These poll numbers are great news for anyone who really cares about American democracy. Best of luck to the Sestak campaign!

2:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember polls mean nothing,we can't celebrate a dead heat,we must get out and vote,there is still a big hill to climb.

10:39 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Franklin & Marshall is a liberal bastion.

10:48 AM  
Blogger Seventh Watch said...

From above:
Anonymous said...
"Franklin & Marshall is a liberal bastion."

Thank you for following the Karl Rove playbook! We expected no less! The playbook says, if you don't like the message, do not address the issue, attack the person (or in this case institution) delivering the message.

This is simple math. Call people, tally the results. Their poll methods and questions asked are outlined. It's a fair poll. The results are fair.

7:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To the seventh watch,I think you might be as edgey as the Weldon people,I think anonymous was being sarcastic just to get a reaction.

8:37 AM  
Blogger David Diano said...

Anonymous-
I think the previous anonymous was being sarcastic. Just using Answer Response C.2 would have been just as funny.

12:59 PM  
Blogger Lobbyist said...

Anyone who understands polling can see that the Keystone Poll is WRONG. They oversampled Chester County. Joe's lead is bigger than one point.

3:12 PM  

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