New independent poll: Sestak up by 8!

A hearty thank you goes out to the thousands who have supported the Sestak campaign so far. All of those doantions of time and money are working. The latest evidence is the new Majority Watch poll results from Opinion Dynamics. They show Joe Sestak leading among likely voters 52%-44%. This is a sign that the message is getting out there. That's hard to do against an entrenched incumbent in an expensive media market.

It's especially worth noting that the Majority Watch results are based on a larger sample size (over 1000 respondants, +/-3%) than other recent polls have used. Methodology and crosstabs are publicly available.

Of the respondants, 49% considered themselves Republicans, and only 31% considered themselves Democrats. Sestak is pulling over a quarter of the Republican vote, while Weldon has virtually no traction among Democrats. (8% are firm Weldon supporters.) Sestak is also crushing Weldon with Independents, 57%-30%.

There's a notable gender gap. While Sestak's lead over Weldon among men is inside the margin of error--essentially even--but Sestak is preferred by women: 52%-44% among the decided voters.

Hey, there's a reason you're supposed to take mom's advice.

Of course, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. So let's keep up the pressure and make sure that Sestak comes out on top November 7th.